Course Description

Good technical and business decisions are based on competent analysis of project costs, benefits and risks. Participants learn the decision analysis process and foundation concepts so they can actively participate in multi-discipline evaluation teams. The focus is on designing and solving decision models. About half the problems relate to exploration. The methods apply to R&D, risk management, and all capital investment decisions. Probability distributions express professional judgments about risks and uncertainties and are carried through the calculations. Decision tree and influence diagrams provide clear communications and the basis for valuing each alternative. Monte Carlo simulation is experienced in detail in a hand-calculation exercise. Project modeling fundamentals and basic probability concepts provide the foundation for the calculations. The mathematics is straightforward and mostly involves only common algebra. The emphasis is on practical techniques for immediate application.
 

Course Objectives

By the end of this course, participant will be able to:

• Understand and apply the decision analysis process.
• Express and interpret risks using probability distributions.
• Use decision trees and Monte Carlo simulation for analysis.
• Evaluate investments and design alternatives.
• Assess value of information (VOI) and project flexibility.
• Apply decision criteria and policy.
• Model decisions using influence diagrams and analyze correlations.
• Understand basic probability and statistics concepts.
• Implement decision analysis techniques in practice.
• Mitigate risks and evaluate prospects effectively.

Who Can Benefit

Geologists, engineers, geophysicists, managers, team leaders, economists, and planners.